Punctuated Equilibrium

The mechanics of speciation, the derivation of new species from old, has long been a subject of research and discussion among evolutionary scientists. A pioneer in the consideration of such issues was Ernst Mayr. In his Systematics and the Origin of Species, Mayr developed the idea that when communities within a species become disjoint from the main population body of the species, perhaps due to geographical isolation over a long period of time, then there is a larger likelihood that these communities will develop divergent traits relative to the original main population body. This means that over time, there is a stronger possibility for subsequent changes to build through mutations or genetic adaptation, which leads to an ever larger gap from the main body of the original species. The changes compound and ultimately the members of the disjoint communities and the original main body of the species may no longer be able to interbreed; a new species has hence developed. This mechanism can at least qualitatively explain results derived from geological studies of fossil records.

These fossil records for many families of organisms seem to indicate that a given species may continue in a stable form for long periods of time, but at some point (from a geological time frame perspective) a number of new, derivative species may emerge. It is unclear whether this presentation of evolutionary progression is a statistical artifact of the fossil record itself, or a true representation of evolutionary mechanics. Certainly, the formation of fossils requires a myriad of special circumstances in order to occur in the first place. Once formed, fossils must survive the deterioration caused by physical forces applied over geological time periods. So, for humans to build an interpretation of the process of evolution, a coherent set of fossils must actually be found and properly categorized as representing distinct evolutionary pathways. One interpretation of this fossil record suggests that mutational events require special circumstances for their initiation, and these circumstances might well evoke a variety of distinct mutations. If sufficiently diverse, these different mutations lead to a single species giving rise to several derivative species within a relatively short time period (within a geological time frame) through the mechanisms described by Mayr’s work. The term punctuated equilibrium was given to this process by Niles Eldridge and Stephen J. Gould in their 1972 paper Punctuated equilibria: an alternative to phyletic gradualism. The gist of their proposal is that the structure of species is likely to remain static over long periods of time, due to the sparse nature of the mechanisms through which changes can be made in individual members of a species and the time and process required for any such changes to be substantially represented within a significant number of members and thus form a new species. When speciation does occur, because of the mechanics of fossil formation noted above, it is likely that the record will show a fully formed new species; that intermediate steps in the path from one species to another may not be captured in a fossil record that is found for study.

Computers appear to evolve according to mechanisms that often present in the form of punctuated equilibrium as well. Indeed, here we are using the term computer to encompass personal electronic devices that can trace significant aspects of their lineage back to the original big iron machines of the 1950’s and 1960’s. Today however, as a society we really do not think of these utility tools (cellular telephones, Apple’s iPod and digital cameras come to mind) as computers. As suggested by Mayr’s model, these are devices that grew up in populations somewhat disjoint from the main body of computer technology development. They intended to be different animals, but they drug along a good bit of the computer genome with them. There were many fits and starts along the way, but in the end they emerged as significant species in their own rights. We observed in Chapter 2 that the primary epochs of computer systems over the last half century or so were characterized by aggregate changes that resulted in very approximately 100 times as many machines being sold at also very approximately 100 times less in cost than the previous species of

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