applies. Here, threat entails employees potentially
losing their jobs, and the rectifying trait involved is their capability to
provide business value to the company. A specific company can acquire this
trait, essentially producing it by hiring the right persons. However, what
happens when we have a group of companies under market threat; meaning that
they’re not earning sufficient profits to justify their existence? These
companies are threatened just as well as their employees, who risk losing their
jobs due to poor financial results that might not be of their own making.
Before formalizing what happens, we need to return to the concept of sacrifice.
If we consider a
group of companies faced with the threat of marketing obsolescence, the trait
we consider is that of developing new business processes in accordance to new
market needs. Some companies will create offspring, as General Motors did by
creating its Saturn division to compete with Japanese imports. Some companies
will develop the competence internally (Ford and its “worldwide” cars), and
some will be absorbed (Chrysler). Alternatively, a variety of techniques are
used to manipulate the definition of, and hence the applicability of, markets.
One technique that is often used to effect this manipulation is the definition
of a standard that governs all, or part of the relevant market. Through
standards, the innovation (and hence potential divergence) within a particular
market can be at least regulated, if not minimized, thus benefiting those who
can most efficiently bring standard products to the market. Standardization has
the beneficial effect of protecting the consumers’ investment in products; for
high volume consumers that buy large numbers of various products, this can be
an important benefit. This, of course has the result of creating a market for
standards, driven by the typically large entities that thrive in a standards
regulated marketplace. And this, in fact, is a prevalent trait of computer
markets.
The first
evolutionary trait exemplified by the short history of computers that one can
directly observe involves the price of a mix of computing power, memory and
storage. Each time a new technology has broken that price by a factor of one
hundred, a new wave of products has emerged with each deploying perhaps a
hundred times more abundantly. This is on par with the observation made
by Clay Christensen in The Inventor’s Dilemma, which illustrated graphically by
considering storage subsystems, how new waves of products first come in under
the previous technology in capabilities, then improve until replacing it if
their price is significantly lower and eventually boost the storage
capabilities by a correspondingly order of magnitude. Following Christensen’s
lead, we’ll term such technologies which drastically change the rules of the
game, disruptive technologies.
The struggle
around this first evolutionary trait of exploding computer capabilities played
out in both synchrony (within one generation) and diachrony (across
generations). From computer history, it appears that the synchronous rule is
that one vendor dominates as long as the rule is not countered in anticipation.
The diachronic rule is that a disruptive technology puts so much in question
the functioning of the market participants, that no one company manages to
dominate the new market as it dominated the previous ones. As the first
dominant computer market innovator, IBM was eclipsed by Digital Equipment, so
was it subsequently eclipsed by Intel and Microsoft. Now, when personal
computers and later personal electronic devices came into play, the natural
selection lessons around the first evolutionary trait had been learned. In
particular, the synchronous rule of player domination had been well understood,
and that rule in itself became a threat.
Therefore, the
second evolutionary trait is related to sacrificial behavior as we described it
earlier. Companies that are aware of the risk of dominance have to ponder
carefully their chance to be that dominant player. In particular, should they
attempt to go alone into the new disruptive technology? If enough players
decide that they don’t stand a chance, they may all accept a lesser
|